Are You Ready For The Playoffs

It's finally here.  After a brutal four month lockout, and an exciting three month season, it's finally time for the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  I'm planning on writing in the future about why the SCP are so special, because that would take way too long to do right now.

First, here's what I think the Pens' lines should be/ probably will be for game 1 on Wednesday

F1 Iginla-Crosby-Dupuis
F2 Kunitz-Malkin-Neal
F3 Cooke-Sutter-Morrow
F4 Glass-Jokinen-Adams

D1 Letang-Despres
D2 Orpik-Martin
D3 Niskanen-Murray

F1 Iginla and Crosby seem perfect to play alongside each other, as we saw in the 2010 Olympics.  Dupuis is also very productive alongside Crosby, with whom he has played for much of his career in Pittsburgh
F2 Another benefit of bumping Iginla up to F1 is that it enables the Pens to reunite the 14-71-18 line, which dominated the NHL last year
F3 This figures to be a terrific checking line, with Cooke and Morrow who have tough reputations, and also contains Sutter who can score clutch goals.
F4 Jokinen deserves to be a top-9 player.  That just shows how deep this team is.

D1 Simon Despres hasn't played every game this year, thanks to what I think is a foolish thought by Dan Bylsma.  When he has played, he played alongside Letang.  And played well.  Let's see what he can do in the playoffs
D2 Orpik is a playoff hit machine, terrorizing opposing forwards (look out John Tavares). Martin has had a terrific year defensively
D3 I'm excited for this line.  The defensively sound Niskanen with the wrecking ball Murray.

Prediction:  I know, I know, this won't be an easy series.  But that doesn't mean the Pens can't dominate it.  The Islanders' key players have no playoff experience.  Their defense is questionable. That, combined with the Penguins ridiculous talent at forward, leads me to predict a 5 game series win for Pittsburgh.

The Good and Bad of the Pirates' Pitching

The Pirates currently sit at 11-9, one game back from the lead of the NL Central.  Not a bad position to be in, nearly a month into the season.  Almost all of the wins were due to a pitcher, starter or reliever, coming up with an amazing performance.  Similarly, a fair amount of the losses can be traced back to a pitcher not doing his job.  Here's a look at how some of the pitchers have been doing this year, and how things could look in the future.



AJ Burnett-  AJ has, as expected been the Pirates' best starter so far.  In his first two starts, he allowed three runs and recorded sixteen strikeouts.  Both were spoiled by the fact that the Bucs' offense was struggling mightily at the time.  He has continued to put up solid numbers, and has improved to 2-2 on the season (the Pirates' 6-5 win over the Reds went down as a no-decision for AJ).  Burnett seems to be the Bucs' most reliable pitcher for the duration of this season.

Wandy Rodriguez-  Wandy has been sensational so far in 2013.  In his first start, he shut down the Cubs through six innings, which would turn out to be the Pirates' first win of 2013.  In his next start, he injured his hamstring in only the second inning, and was forced to leave the game.  He missed his next start (Phil Irwin got the spot start, which turned out to be a thrilling comeback win over Cincinnati), and returned on the 19th vs. Atlanta.  He pitched a 2-hit shutout through 7 innings.  The Pirates closed out the game having faced the minimum 27 batters for the first time in decades.  As terrific as he has been, it is a very small sample size, plus the hamstring could come back to bother him.  Things look cautiously optimistic for Wandy.

James McDonald-  JMac, JMac, JMac.... Truly an impossible puzzle to solve.  Lights-out one day, lit-up the next.  Shut down the Cubs in his first start of the season, gets lit up for 10 runs in the 2nd inning against the Cardinals.  His most recent start against Atlanta was the epitome of inconsistency.  He struck out the first three batters he faced.  In the second inning, he loaded the bases, and proceeded to walk home the leading run.  Directly thereafter, he struck out three batters to end the inning.  Frustrating for fans.  I'm not going to venture a guess on JMac.  The potential for success is certainly there.

Jeff Locke-  Jeff Locke has been quietly mediocre.  He was unimpressive in his first few outings.  He had a good start on Tuesday vs. Philadelphia.  Personally, I don't think he will remain in the rotation very long.  Charlie Morton and Francisco Liriano are returning soon.  Later on, Jeff Karstens will be ready.  Gerrit Cole will be called up.  No space for Locke.

Jonathan Sanchez-  Similar story for Sanchez.  He's been remarkably mediocre thus far, including a 10 run torching by the Arizona Diamondbacks.  I would be shocked if he is in the rotation in June.

Buccos Report: The First 13

We're 13 games into the 2013 season, and its not really clear what we should think of these Pirates.  They've had highs and lows, to say the least.  Plenty of strengths, and plenty of weaknesses.  It featured being swept by the Dodgers without a fight, a strange series win in Arizona, and an impressive sweep of the rival Cincinnati Reds, including the comeback from being down 5-0 last Sunday.

Positives so far:

Starling Marte-  In his first full season in the Major Leagues, Starling Marte has been tearing it up.  With a .370 batting average so far, a .404 On Base Percentage, 3 doubles, 1 triple, and one home run, he has easily been the Pirates' best player.  He is one of the fastest guys on the team (second possibly to Andrew McCutchen), and can do it all in Right Field.  Its full speed ahead for what looks to be like an excellent season.

The Bullpen-  Some of the Pirates' starting pitchers have gotten it done.  Wandy Rodriguez, and AJ Burnett have done their jobs.  None of the Pirates' other three starters have made it deep into a game, some of them not getting through five innings.  When you don't get many quality starts, you need a strong bullpen to pick up the slack, and they've done just that.  Jeanmar Gomez and Justin Wilson have looked very good in long-relief.  Tony Watson and Jared Hughes have been good, save for a bad outing each (Watson on the 12th vs. CIN, Hughes on the 14th vs. CIN).  Mark Melancon and Jason Grilli have been locking it down at set-up and closer, respectively.

Disappointments so far:

Pedro Alvarez-  Pedro has had a typical Pedro slump so far this year.  He is weighed down by his .073 Average, and zero homers or extra-bases.  We've seen this before.  It could drag on for who knows how long.  When it ends, it could end in dramatic fashion, with Pedro ripping off homer after homer for a while.  Who knows.

Looking ahead

The Pirates have the toughest opening six weeks in all of baseball.  they have come out of the first two weeks within one game of that coveted .500.  This schedule stays tough, but that sweep of Cincinnati is encouraging.  Nothing gets a team rolling like some wins vs. a divisional rival.

Don't Panic... yet

It's April 7th, and the panic is already on.  We're only one week into the six month journey that is baseball season, and people have already written off the Pirates.  I'm not saying there's no reason to do so.

This has been a very disappointing start.  One win, five losses to start the year.  The total inability to get hits, let alone runs.  A series loss to the divisional rival Chicago Cubs, and a sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers.  It wasn't pretty.  The Bucs wasted two beautiful pitching performances by AJ Burnett.  They wasted a surprisingly decent showing by Jonathan Sanchez.  Today's loss to the Dodgers marked the first time this year where the pitching staff did not give them a legitimate chance to win.  The offense took a step forward, with Andrew McCutchen crushing the team's first home run of 2013.  Hits weren't quite as scarce as before.  People seemed to be getting better quality contact.  But still, there's not much good to take out of the first six games of the season.

But amid all of the widespread depression among the Pirates community, I'm about to say why it is absurd to panic just yet.  Here's why:

Pitching is the foundation for success.  It is absolutely the most important thing for a winning baseball team to have.  The Pirates have it.  AJ Burnett has turned in two top-notch starts.  Wandy Rodriguez delivered a handling of the Cubs' lineup.  Even Jonathan Sanchez turned in a quality start, pitching through six innings allowing three earned runs.  The bullpen has performed well, with Jared Hughes succeeding in both of his outings, Tony Watson getting out of a bases-loaded situation unscathed.  The pitching is certainly there.

The obvious, glaring issue with this team is the hitting.  The team collectively has hit below .200.  Until today, there were zero home runs, and only two doubles.  The only player to have two hits in one game was Starling Marte, and they were both singles.  Alvarez isn't looking good, if you know what I mean.  However, you should wait before hitting the panic button.  Look at last year's season.  We started in a very similar fashion, with excellent pitching and extremely bad offense.  But they pulled through.  Eventually (May 25th to be exact) the offense lit up.  And don't be fooled, the Pirates have some serious weapons.  Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Garrett Jones, Neil Walker, and Starling Marte make for a formidable core.  If something, anything, can spark this offense, it could easily light on fire once again. It's not a lack of talent, at least I don't think so.  It's something intangible.

This bodes well for the Pirates because it means things could turn around at any moment.  Today we could hit this horribly, but as soon as tomorrow we could have a big day at the plate.  I'm not saying it will turn around tomorrow.  I'm saying that it could turn around tomorrow.  And there's no reason to say it won't be tomorrow.  They face the Arizona Diamondbacks, who play in a very hitter-friendly ballpark, which could be just the thing to get this offense going.

I'm not pretending that this first week hasn't been bad.  All I mean to say is that the potential is there to pick things up any day now.

Equipped for Success

Last year, the Penguins were a favorite to win the Cup for much of the year, especially after Sidney Crosby made his second return in March.  As the the trade deadline approached and passed, the Pens' GM Ray Shero did something out of character: nothing.  He made no moves to strengthen the team in any way.  This proved to be a mistake, as Philadelphia would eliminate the Penguins from the playoffs in the first round, embarrassing them defensively.

This year was obviously different.  Shero did a lot to strengthen the team.  In fact, he did far more than any other NHL GM.  Here's a look at the Pens' 5 acquisitions (In chronological order), and how they can help them to a Stanley Cup win.

1. Tomas Vokoun One of the glaring problems in the Pens' playoff loss to Philadelphia was the goaltending.  Marc-Andre Fleury played very poorly (an understatement).  This was in part because of fatigue.  Backup goalie Brent Johnson played so poorly in 2011-12 that he couldn't be trusted to win a game, forcing Fleury to play over 20 games in a row.  He had nothing left by the time the playoffs came around.  So, Shero went out and got a reliable backup who could relieve some of the load.  Enter Vokoun.  While he won't see the ice during the Stanley Cup Playoffs, he will give Fleury the rest he needs to play well.

2.  Brenden Morrow Before this season started, in my New Year's Resolutions blog, I pointed out that the Penguins needed to regain their toughness.  The toughness they had in their 2009 Cup win, but totally lacked in 2011-2012.  The bottom line:  The Playoffs are not a scoring-fest, they are a defensive, hard-hitting battle.  The Pens got some of the toughness back with the veteran winger Morrow.  He will play on the third line instead of Tyler Kennedy, making that line more of a traditional third line (hard-hitting, good defensively, hard to play against in general).

3.  Douglas Murray In 2009, as the Penguins were gearing up to eventually win the Stanley Cup, Shero acquired defenseman Hal Gill.  Gill was a great shutdown defenseman, something infinitely valuable in the Playoffs.  Gill left for Montreal after that year.  The Penguins have lacked that solid, veteran presence ever since, especially after Sergei Gonchar left town.  The Pens regained some of that when they got Doug Murray.  He is probably the most underrated hitters in the league.  He adds to the Penguins' toughness and defense, which (not to sound like a broken record) is incredibly important to win a Stanley Cup.

4. Jarome Iginla  This is the one we're all excited about.  Last Wednesday, we all went to bed thinking Iginla went to the Bruins.  To the delight of Pens fans everywhere, Ray Shero swooped in at the last minute and grabbed him.  This is an obviously great addition to this team.  Iginla has a scoring touch which is always a plus, and he can also hit and even fight.  Another player in the "tough to play against" list.

5.  Jussi Jokinen Jokinen is a 3rd-line-at-best center.  He was acquired mainly because Crosby is injured for the time being, and we need depth at center.  Tyler Kennedy wasn't exactly cutting it as a No. 1 center, so Shero pulled the trigger (Jokinen came with a very, very low price tag).  Once Crosby returns, he will be slotted into the fourth line, which desperately needs a spark.  He is a whiz at faceoffs, which the Penguins have lacked this year, even during the 15 game win streak.