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Welcome to Total Pittsburgh Sports. I give my opinions on, analyze, and discuss all things related to the Penguins, Pirates, and Steelers. Hope you enjoy, and comment your thoughts!

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Monday, July 28, 2014

Pirates In The Playoff Chase: 2014 Edition

The Pirates, surprisingly find themselves in a very similar position as they did at this point last season. They sit three games back of the first place Milwaukee Brewers, and just 1.5 games back of the second Wild Card spot.  With over two months of baseball left, they have as good a chance as any to climb into a second consecutive postseason berth.  This comes as a surprise because the team got off to its worst start in eight years (18-26 to start the season).  Their current position is thanks to a dominant run that saw them pick up more wins since May 1st than any other team in baseball.

Unlike last season, the Pirates' offense has been their strength.  Andrew McCutchen is the anchor of there lineup, and he is on a collision course with a second consecutive NL MVP award.  Starling Marte has shown potential, and seemed to be a good fit in the two spot, sandwiched between McCutchen and rookie Gregory Polanco.  Polanco started his MLB career on June 20th, and impressed immediately.  He cooled off in mid-July though, but it looks to just be growing pains.  Neil Walker is having a career year, hitting .290 with 50 RBI and 15 homers.  Russell Martin's OBP is through the roof, which is totally different from last year.  Jordy Mercer is getting in on the act, as well.  The bench has been a surprising strength, too, with Travis Snider emerging as a pinch hitting hero.

And then there's Josh Harrison.  J-hay could well be the surprise player of the year in all of baseball.  He simply entertains. He's been hitting around .300 all year, hitting extra-base hits with regularity.  He is known for his hustle in the field, and his ability to play left/right field, second base, shortstop, or third (in fact, he even pitched once last year).  In July in a game against the Rockies, J-hay was caught between 2nd and 3rd, but he escaped the rundown by hitting the deck and avoiding tags three times.  He did it again this week against the rockies (in Denver, this time).  McCutchen is the team's MVP, and Harrison is the team's spark plug.

The starting rotation has been a bit of a mess this year. Passable, but a bit of a mess.  Francisco Liriano simply has not been in 2013 form.  The slider that made Joey Votto look like a child lost in a mall during the Wild Card game last year has been less elusive and with lower velocity.  He is walking too many batters as well.  He's been showing encouraging signs lately, though, so perhaps he'll be a help down the stretch. Gerrit Cole showed off his dominant stuff early in the year, but (save for one or two starts) couldn't roll it all together to dominate a game.  He's been injured for most of the time since June, so maybe he too can be a help down the stretch when he returns from the DL.  Jeff Locke has been more than satisfactory since being inserted into the rotation in June, but people are understandably wary of another collapse from Jeff.  Vance Worley has been consistent, but he is in the most danger of being bumped into the bullpen upon Cole's return.  Edinson Volquez, by the numbers, has been good.  He just always gives me an uneasy feeling on the mound.  Overall, the pitching doesn't look like a playoff rotation, but there's a lot of variables.

The bullpen is the real concern of this team.  Mark Melancon has been nothing short of an elite closer since he was put into the role in June.  Tony Watson is arguably even better than Mark.  Justin Wilson can usually be counted on for one to two innings in relief, and he can bring the heat.  Jared Hughes has been a nice surprise.  He's made getting out of bases loaded jams his trademark.  That's where things get iffy.  The rest of the bullpen consists of Ernesto Frieri, Stolmy Pimentel, and Jeanmar Gomez. None of whom you would like to see in a must-win situation.  Personally, I think there are better options in the minors. Vin Mazzaro is a start.

The Bucs are in the most competitive division in baseball.  The Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds are all fighting along with the Bucs for the coveted NL Central crown.  If the Bucs want to take it, they need Cole and Liriano to return to, if not 2013 form, "pretty good" form. They need Pedro Alvarez to remember how to throw across the diamond.  And, lets face it, they need to trade for a reliever.

Let's Go Bucs

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Baseball Is Back

There are a lot of annoying things about baseball.  Umpires getting calls wrong, players inexplicably making stupid decisions, pitchers saying they will sign with one team then signing with another, to name a few.  Those three examples are all part of the game, though. They are all pieces in the puzzle that, when put together, makes the game we love.  The only thing I truly cannot stand in baseball is the fans' obsession over predicting things.  We sit, on this February 16th, forty-two days out from opening day.  All you can hear is people rambling on about how the Pirates will or won't make the playoffs, or whether the front office blew it, or whether the sky will fall.  Nothing but gloom surrounds the Pirates, on the day before Spring Training.  I can't stand it.  Since when have preseason predictions been anywhere near accurate? Last year, almost every expert picked the Pirates to finish below .500 for the twenty-first consecutive season.  And, guess what? They not only achieved eighty-two wins, they racked up ninety-four exciting, heart-pounding, unbelievable wins.  So you can keep your predictions.  I'd rather just enjoy the season as it comes to me, instead of insisting on trying to rush through it.

Keeping in the optimistic mood, I have a few reasons to believe that the Pirates can repeat their success of 2013. Here are some of them.

Pitching Won't Miss A Beat - Many are looking at the Pirates' pitching staff and wondering "how have they improved?".  While that is a hard question to answer, it is also hard to find a place in which it has declined.  The only departure was made by an aging AJ Burnett. His loss will be felt, no doubt, but I think his spot will be filled by the aspiring Jeff Locke, or the phenom Jameson Taillon.  The rest of the staff looks solid.  Francisco Liriano is coming off of a dominant season, and, while an identical repeat would be a lot to ask, it seems reasonable to expect a solid season from Frankie.  Gerrit Cole is poised to become a dominant pitcher in the league.  He developed over the course of last season, complimenting his 100 mph fastball with an effective curve.  Wandy Rodriguez reported yesterday that he threw a bullpen session with no pain in his previously injured forearm.  While these injuries can be unpredictable, if all goes well, we could be seeing good old efficient Wandy back on the mound this April or May.  Charlie Morton was lights out after returning to the rotation in June, combining his ground-ball inducing sinker with a swing-and-miss curveball.  The fifth spot has a bit of uncertainty to it.  The Bucs signed Edinson Volquez to fill it, but I really don't like his chances.  I'd rather see Jeff Locke or even Brandon Cumpton get a shot, they are two guys who showed promise last year (especially Locke).  Jameson Taillon is the next Pirates prospect who is waiting to burst onto the scene, and probably will do so in June.  I'm finding it hard to not feel good about this rotation.

Hitting Can Hold Down The Fort - Last year, the Pirates succeeded by having their pitchers shut the opposition down, while their hitters got just enough to win. I firmly believe that we have the pieces on offense to "hold down the fort", and maybe more.  Yes, I know we are lacking a first baseman.  We also lacked one last year.  Obviously, reigning NL MVP Andrew McCutchen leads the charge.  There's no reason not to expect another big year at the plate for Cutch.  I personally am really excited to watch Starling Marte this year. We got to see some of his incredible raw talent in the first half of last year, but he declined a bit because of injury.  I wouldn't be shocked if he put up a monster season this year.  Pedro Alvarez can be frustrating at the plate, with his lack of discipline, but as long as a sends thirty balls over the fence, who are we to complain?  Of course, it would be nice if he could raise his average twenty points (to a whopping .260).  If Neil Walker can get his consistency back, and Jordy Mercer and Russell Martin can chip in a big hit once in a while, this offense might just do the job. And, hey, there's no rule that says Gaby Sanchez isn't allowed to get hits (although you might think so based on what people are saying around here).

Why Not? - My biggest question to all the doubters is why not? Why should it not be us?  Let's assume that St. Louis, LA, and Atlanta will win their respective divisions.  That leaves the Buccos, the Reds, the Nationals, the D-backs, and all the bottom-dwellers to contend for the final two playoff spots.  Is it so ridiculous that the Pirates would end up in the top two of that list? I don't think so.

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

What Stands In The Way Of A Fourth Stanley Cup For The Penguins?



   As many supporters of the team have grown accustomed to over the past four years, the Penguins are once again near the top of the list of teams that are believed to be legitimate contenders for the Stanley Cup.  After all, they have possibly the top two players in the world, in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, on their roster.  Those two, complemented by dynamic scorers Chris Kunitz and James Neal, make for a dangerous offense. If the “defense wins championships” theory is a concern, the Pens have former Norris Trophy (for the NHL’s best defenseman) finalist Kris Letang, along with shutdown defensemen Paul Martin and Rob Scuderi.  Goaltender Marc Andre Fleury currently leads the NHL in wins, with twenty-nine, and ranks in the top ten in average goals-against (2.26). 
All of this combines to form one massive expectation: the Penguins will be playing games into early June.  That has been the expectation every year since 2008. While they reached the finals and lost to Detroit in ’08, and then won the Cup in 2009, the expectation hasn’t been met lately.  The Pens have lost in the first or second round in three of the past four years, and haven’t recorded a win past round two since that Cup run in ’09.  The Penguins should be building a dynasty with multiple Cups, like Chicago has been doing.  Instead, the team has been haunted by the likes of Jaroslav Halak, Claude Giroux, Marty St. Louis, and, most recently, Tuukka Rask.  While all signs point to the Pens having a great chance to erase that this spring by bringing home the big prize, there are a few reasons to be wary of another disappointment.
The first is a lack of secondary scoring.  While Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, James Neal, and Chris Kunitz have been filling the net, the team has received very little production from the rest of the offense.  Players like Brandon Sutter, Chuck Kobasew, and Craig Adams have been all but nonexistent on the score sheet. While it is expected that the top six forwards will carry the majority of the offensive load, a Stanley Cup-winning team needs the occasional big goal contribution from the bottom six, too.  Part of this will be resolved over time.  Chris Conner, Joe Vitale, and Beau Bennett all should return from injury well before the time the playoffs roll around.  Another possibility is making a trade, perhaps shipping one of the team’s many defensive prospects away in return for a winger.  If nothing is done to address this problem, this would be a serious concern as we head towards April. 
Another worry is defense.  The Penguins have a wealth of talent on defense. As stated above, they have a solid top three of Kris Letang, Paul Martin, and Rob Scuderi.  They are well complemented by the heavy hitting Brooks Orpik, and the dynamic pairing of Matt Niskanen and rookie Olli Maatta.  Sometimes, however, the way the defense operates is more important than the talent itself.  Kris Letang, for instance, has the talent to be one of the best two-way defensemen the league has ever seen.  However, instead of being smart with the puck, he is often creating turnovers or making poor choices. Another problem is a lack of defensive responsibility, or “paying attention to the little things”.  The Cup-winning Penguins of ’09 prided themselves on their attention to detail. Their miniscule number of mistakes meant they allowed far fewer goals, which meant they won more games in spite of not having the explosive offense that the 2014 team has.  If the defense becomes more responsible—which we have seen, at some points this season, that they can do—then this concern isn’t really a factor.
Another potential problem is injury.  It is a fact of life that has plagued the Penguins seemingly forever.  Old people will remember how Mario Lemieux’s career was hindered by his back problems.  In recent memory, Sidney Crosby was sidelined for nine months with a concussion, and Evgeni Malkin had to have reconstructive knee surgery.  This season alone, the Penguins were without Evgeni Malkin, James Neal, Kris Letang, Paul Martin, Rob Scuderi, Brooks Orpik, and Deryk Engelland all at the same time!  While they found ways to operate and get by for the time being, such a rash of injuries would certainly spell the team’s demise in the playoffs.  A rational proposition would be that the Penguins need Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, James Neal, Chris Kunitz, Kris Letang, Paul Martin, Rob Scuderi, Brooks Orpik, and Marc Andre Fleury to stay healthy 100% of the playoffs in order to reach their goal.  Not much can be done to prevent injuries from happening.  However, we’ve seen it ruin a team’s chances before. For instance, the 2011 Penguins entered the playoffs without the services of Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin, and they were eliminated in the first round.
The Penguins, as they stand, are one of the top five contenders in the NHL.  Obviously, being top five doesn’t necessarily get you the Cup. The Pens are interested, and only interested, in being number one. To do that, their bottom-six forwards need to start chipping in some goals (or GM Ray Shero needs to trade for a better one(s)), the defensemen need to play soundly and responsibly, and they need to stay healthy. 



In 2011, the abundance of injuries to forwards left them with little finishing capability, allowing Lightning goalie Dwayne Roloson to put up a forcefield in game 7:

In 2012, a lack of defensive responsibility allowed Flyers forward Claude Giroux to fill the net, an lead the Flyers to victory: 


In their Cup run in 2009, the Pens played well defensively and received goals from secondary forwards, which led them to victory in games like this: