Before we dive into playoff pitching scenarios, I should mention that the Pirates can clinch a playoff berth as soon as Saturday. In order to miss the playoffs, the Washington Nationals would need to make up a six game deficit over a nine game span. It simply won't happen. Your Pirates are going to play playoff ball.
There has been much debate about what the starting rotation should be going into the playoffs. People have been swayed by recent performances, overall track records, and veteran experience. Here's what I think the rotation should be.
Game 1 (or Wild Card Game) -- Francisco Liriano RHP
Liriano has been the Pirates' obvious staff ace this season. After missing the first month of the season, Frankie has posted sixteen wins and a solid 2.92 earned run average. That ERA would be a lot lower if it weren't for a couple bad outings. Ignore those two poor starts, and we're looking at an ERA under 2. Liriano has two complete games under his belt this season, and has seemed to always be able to dominate division rival St. Louis. Above all, Liriano has served as a stopper. A stopper is a pitcher who steps in in the midst of a slump and, as manager Clint Hurdle would say, "puts his foot down". This season, Frankie has done this countless times. He's your obvious game one starter.
Game 2 -- Gerrit Cole RHP
This would've seemed a bit unrealistic about six weeks ago. Since the end of August and throughout September, Cole has been dominating opponents. This run of success started on August 28th against the Milwaukee Brewers, and has continued through today. That stretch has seen Cole evolve from a rookie with a blistering fastball into a true, jam-getting-out-of, can't-be-rattled, strikeout pitcher. Last week Cole went up against Texas' Yu Darvish, and showed him up by pitching eight scoreless innings with nine strikeouts (the Pirates would get the 1-0 win). And today, in a game vs. the San Diego Padres, he turned in his best start yet. Over six innings, he struck out a whopping twelve batters (out of 18 outs he created, 66% were K's). He got out in front of batters, and looked completely in control. I give the ball to him in game two.
Game 3-- Charlie Morton RHP
After returning from Tommy John's surgery in June, Morton has looked better than ever before. He has posted a 7-4 record, and 3.35 ERA. Those numbers aren't eye popping, but his pitching of late certainly has been. He has continued his heavy use of the sinker to induce ground balls, and it has been working outstandingly. He has also greatly inproved his curveball, which has increased his strikeout totals. When healthy, Charlie is nasty. Hard not to go to him for game #3
Game 4-- AJ Burnett RHP
After being the staff ace last year, you may have expected AJ to be higher on this list. This season hasn't been a poor one by any means for him. He has been playing far better than his 8-11 record suggests, and his 3.43 ERA proves it. He is a veteran capable of getting out of the toughest jams, and there are few games I wouldn't trust him with. I admit, it feels odd having him at #4. However, given what the other three have been doing lately, I had no choice.
Over the next nine days the Pirates will battle. They have their eyes set on the division title, avoiding the dreaded one game wild card playoff. Whatever happens, we have the pitching to win games. Should be a fun ride.
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