The Dream Is Over... For Now

I'll begin this the same way I began my last post: Wow.  That's the only word that comes to mind.  When I look back on what has taken place in the Pirates organization since the end of the 2012 season, all I can say is, wow.

Pittsburgh was a baseball town before it was ever a football town.  The Pirates were playing (and winning) World Series before the Steelers existed.  Baseball used to be king around here.  During the twenty year losing streak, all of that was erased.  The Pirates became a city-wide (and nation-wide) joke.  There was one Pirates jersey worn for every thirty Steelers jerseys.  The Pirates were accomplishing nothing, and nobody cared.  That's what makes the last year so incredible for this team.  They made Pittsburgh into a baseball town once again. The fact that they were able to do that, despite being the laughingstock of Western PA for two decades, means something truly amazing must have taken place.  Let's take a look at this amazing season.

It started last winter.  The Pirates were coming off another late season collapse.  Any baseball passion that had been rekindled around here had been crushed.  Many called for the team's front office, led by GM Neal Huntington, to be fired.  Owner Bob Nutting presented an ultimatum: either the Pirates would win in 2013, or people would get fired.  Many thought the current management team was hopelessly incompetent, and were essentially hoping we would lose just so they would be fired.  Huntington had other ideas.  He would prove them all wrong.

The Pirates had what must have been (correct me if I'm wrong) the best offseason in team history.  Huntington scraped together what seemed to be spare parts from around baseball, who all turned out to be stars.  Russell Martin was a defensive prowess behind the plate, Mark Melancon was lights out out of the bullpen, Jeanmar Gomez turned out to be a stellar long-reliever, and of course Francisco Liriano rose up to be the team's ace on the mound.  We didn't know it at the time, but Huntington set the Pirates up for success long before Opening Day.

The regular season was a six month dream for fans who haven't seen winning baseball in their lives (like me).  We got off to a fast start, posting twenty wins in April.  One memory I have from PNC Park in the very early stages of the season was a comeback win vs. the Cincinnati Reds, in which we were down 5-0.  This set the stage for the rest of the season, in a way.  The Pirates made comeback wins their trademark.  Any deficit of four runs or less in a ballgame was not worrying from a fan's point of view.

The Pirates' success this year came from their pitching, as it has for each of the past three years.  Francisco Liriano was a revelation.  He was dominant from the moment he made his debut at the beginning of May, all the way up until his last playoff start five days ago.  He was especially prolific at PNC Park, posting a 1.81 ERA there.  He quickly became the team's stopper, putting an end to any losing streaks, or getting a much needed win against a division rival.  AJ Burnett came back as less of a dominant ace, and more of a scrappy, get-it-done-somehow type of pitcher.  That style suits him well, in my opinion.  Charlie Morton returned from his Tommy John recovery about midway through the season, and was very impressive.  Jeff Locke faded down the stretch, but I still appreciate his impressive stuff from the first half of the season.  Gerrit Cole exceeded all expectations that came with his billing as our top prospect.  He came up in mid June, and pitched six shutout innings.  He consistently has a fastball that sits at 98 MPH, and his curveball has improved by leaps and bounds.  Down the stretch in August, September, and October, he was especially impressive and crucial to the team's success.

This season was full of pitching gems, walkoff wins, incredible comebacks, packed PNC Parks, Greg Brown outbursts, and so many memories.  I'm not mad that we didn't win the World Series.  Yes, I wish we beat the Cardinals.  We were bested.  We went down honorably.  I'm proud of this team.

Besides, there's only optimism for the Pirates' future.  With almost all of the core players on contract, this team will only get better.  Of course, it wouldn't hurt to resign Marlon Byrd, and maybe AJ Burnett.  Besides them, all the key players on the field, in the rotation, and in the bullpen are locked up. Top prospect Jameson Taillon (starting pitcher) seems to be poised to make his MLB debut next season. If you want to know what to expect, he's been rumored to be better than Gerrit Cole.  If that's true... Wow. OF Gregory Polanco had a breakout season with AA Altoona. He will be bursting onto the scene in 2015, maybe even as a September callup in '14.  And if you want to look way ahead, pitchers Tyler Glasnow, Luis Heredia, and outfielder Austin Meadows all appear to have bright futures.

It looks like we're in for many fun summers to come at PNC Park.

Happy Easter... I mean Opening Day-Eve

Finally.  The most mind numbingly boring thing in sports, MLB Spring Training, is over.  The team is finally at PNC Park, preparing for Opening Day against the Chicago Cubs tomorrow.  After an entire month of speculation of what will happen this season, in particular the 20 year old question of "Will the Bucs make .500?".  Well, after a month of thinking, one thing has become clear: Nothing is certain, there are too many variables.

So, on this Opening Day-Eve, I'm taking one last stab at a preview to the 2013 season.

Four players you can expect big things from in 2013

Andrew McCutchen, CF-- This one is so obvious, I considered not even writing it.  Last year, Cutch established himself as a true superpower in the MLB.  He had a bit of a drop-off in the final 1/3 of the season, which coincided with the team's collapse.  He is hungry to put up big numbers the whole way through, and more importantly, he is hungry to carry this team into the playoffs.

Starling Marte, RF-- Marte was called up from the minors in late July of 2012.  He famously crushed a home run on his first pitch of his first at-bat, which happened to be the first pitch of the game.  A big statement indeed.  The next 2.5 months were so-so for Marte.  He didn't meet the unfair expectations that come with such a statement, however he wasn't all that bad.  He is very young, and has lots of potential.  Look for him to try to establish himself as a quality MLB hitter in 2013.

Clint Barmes-- In this case, you need to thing of "big things" in a relative way.  Barmes was terrible for most of 2012.  He showed signs of life in parts of August and September, but that was it.  I see him making a comeback this year, posting something like a .250-.260 batting average.

Wandy Rodriguez-- Wandy was acquired by the Bucs at last year's trade deadline.  As a starting pitcher, he turned in solid outings in nearly every start.  He had been doing that for a long time with Houston, but couldn't be seen behind all that failure by the Astros.

Two players NOT to expect big things from in 2013

Neil Walker-- Walker entered the Big Leagues in 2010.  He has been a fairly good player his whole career.  Last year he hit very few home runs and showed very little power.  Also, he was injured for most of August and September.  This is just one person's opinion, but I don't thing Walker will have a good 2013.

Jeff Locke-- Jeff was called up from the minors in August of 2012, and never really put together an impressive performance.  While he is young with good potential, I see him having a poor start to 2013 and being replaced by a healed Jeff Karstens or Charlie Morton.

Final prediction for 2013

Record: 88-74

Wild Card appearance

5 Starters, .500

I could write a list a mile long of things that need to happen for the Pirates to have a winning season.  Their first winning season in twenty years, the longest such streak in North American Professional Sports.  The most important thing to a team's success, by far, is strong starting pitching.  The Bucs' rotation of SP's this year is hard to gauge, due to some injuries and player inconsistency.  Here's what it looks like to start the season(Opening Day is monday!).

1. AJ Burnett  AJ was one of the Pirates' biggest bright spots last year.  In his second start of the year, he allowed a baseball record nine runs through four innings.  After that, he played like a true ace for pretty much the entire season, including a one hit masterpiece in which he came within four outs of a no-hitter.  He also served as a veteran leader for the team.  Look for the same strong play this year, but don't be too surprised if he slows down a little.  He is 37 after all.

2. Wandy Rodriguez The Pirates made three trades at the trade-deadline last year, and one of them could be considered a success.  That one success would be the trade that brought SP Wandy Rodriguez from Houston.  Rodriguez played excellent ball, although it was a small sample size starting at the mid-august trade-deadline.  All signs point to him having another solid year this year.

3. James McDonald JMac is probably the hardest pitcher to gauge of them all.  In the first half of the 2012 season, he played like an ace, an all-star.  After the all-star break (the midway point of the season) things went south in a hurry.  From the midpoint on, he posted an Earned Runs Average (ERA) above eight.  Eventually, in mid-August, he was pulled from the starting rotation and demoted to the bullpen.  So the question for this year is "which JMac will we see this year?  The ace, or the 8+ ERA JMac?  A lot of the Pirates' success this year depends on that.

Veterans Jeff Karstens and Charlie Morton will both start the season injured, and the following guys will fill in for them:

4. Jonathan Sanchez Sanchez, signed in the offseason by the Bucs, is one of the more bizarre stories on the team this year.  Four years ago, he threw a no-hitter.  Last year, he had an ERA above nine. NINE.  What is more disturbing is that the Pirates' front office somehow thought he would be a good addition this year, and signed him to a minor league contract.  The most disturbing is that they promoted him to the Majors, and gave him a spot as a starting pitcher.  Buckle your seatbelts.  Let's hope he proves me wrong.

5. Jeff Locke  Jeff Locke was given his first chance as a starter during the second half of last season.  He put up poor performances, simple as that.  However, he is very young, and shows potential. We'll see.

A lot of the Pirates' hopes this year depends on these people.  The latter two tossers seem like a dreadful back-end of the rotation, but help will come when Karstens and Morton return.  Another piece of good news:  2010 first-round draft pick Gerrit Cole is ready to play at the major league level.  He probably won't be called up to Pittsburgh until at least June, which would allow the Pirates to retain him for an extra year.