What Stands In The Way Of A Fourth Stanley Cup For The Penguins?

   As many supporters of the team have grown accustomed to over the past four years, the Penguins are once again near the top of the list of teams that are believed to be legitimate contenders for the Stanley Cup.  After all, they have possibly the top two players in the world, in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, on their roster.  Those two, complemented by dynamic scorers Chris Kunitz and James Neal, make for a dangerous offense. If the “defense wins championships” theory is a concern, the Pens have former Norris Trophy (for the NHL’s best defenseman) finalist Kris Letang, along with shutdown defensemen Paul Martin and Rob Scuderi.  Goaltender Marc Andre Fleury currently leads the NHL in wins, with twenty-nine, and ranks in the top ten in average goals-against (2.26). 

All of this combines to form one massive expectation: the Penguins will be playing games into early June.  That has been the expectation every year since 2008. While they reached the finals and lost to Detroit in ’08, and then won the Cup in 2009, the expectation hasn’t been met lately.  The Pens have lost in the first or second round in three of the past four years, and haven’t recorded a win past round two since that Cup run in ’09.  The Penguins should be building a dynasty with multiple Cups, like Chicago has been doing.  Instead, the team has been haunted by the likes of Jaroslav Halak, Claude Giroux, Marty St. Louis, and, most recently, Tuukka Rask.  While all signs point to the Pens having a great chance to erase that this spring by bringing home the big prize, there are a few reasons to be wary of another disappointment.

The first is a lack of secondary scoring.  While Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, James Neal, and Chris Kunitz have been filling the net, the team has received very little production from the rest of the offense.  Players like Brandon Sutter, Chuck Kobasew, and Craig Adams have been all but nonexistent on the score sheet. While it is expected that the top six forwards will carry the majority of the offensive load, a Stanley Cup-winning team needs the occasional big goal contribution from the bottom six, too.  Part of this will be resolved over time.  Chris Conner, Joe Vitale, and Beau Bennett all should return from injury well before the time the playoffs roll around.  Another possibility is making a trade, perhaps shipping one of the team’s many defensive prospects away in return for a winger.  If nothing is done to address this problem, this would be a serious concern as we head towards April. 

Another worry is defense.  The Penguins have a wealth of talent on defense. As stated above, they have a solid top three of Kris Letang, Paul Martin, and Rob Scuderi.  They are well complemented by the heavy hitting Brooks Orpik, and the dynamic pairing of Matt Niskanen and rookie Olli Maatta.  Sometimes, however, the way the defense operates is more important than the talent itself.  Kris Letang, for instance, has the talent to be one of the best two-way defensemen the league has ever seen.  However, instead of being smart with the puck, he is often creating turnovers or making poor choices. Another problem is a lack of defensive responsibility, or “paying attention to the little things”.  The Cup-winning Penguins of ’09 prided themselves on their attention to detail. Their miniscule number of mistakes meant they allowed far fewer goals, which meant they won more games in spite of not having the explosive offense that the 2014 team has.  If the defense becomes more responsible—which we have seen, at some points this season, that they can do—then this concern isn’t really a factor.

Another potential problem is injury.  It is a fact of life that has plagued the Penguins seemingly forever.  Old people will remember how Mario Lemieux’s career was hindered by his back problems.  In recent memory, Sidney Crosby was sidelined for nine months with a concussion, and Evgeni Malkin had to have reconstructive knee surgery.  This season alone, the Penguins were without Evgeni Malkin, James Neal, Kris Letang, Paul Martin, Rob Scuderi, Brooks Orpik, and Deryk Engelland all at the same time!  While they found ways to operate and get by for the time being, such a rash of injuries would certainly spell the team’s demise in the playoffs.  A rational proposition would be that the Penguins need Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, James Neal, Chris Kunitz, Kris Letang, Paul Martin, Rob Scuderi, Brooks Orpik, and Marc Andre Fleury to stay healthy 100% of the playoffs in order to reach their goal.  Not much can be done to prevent injuries from happening.  However, we’ve seen it ruin a team’s chances before. For instance, the 2011 Penguins entered the playoffs without the services of Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin, and they were eliminated in the first round.

The Penguins, as they stand, are one of the top five contenders in the NHL.  Obviously, being top five doesn’t necessarily get you the Cup. The Pens are interested, and only interested, in being number one. To do that, their bottom-six forwards need to start chipping in some goals (or GM Ray Shero needs to trade for a better one(s)), the defensemen need to play soundly and responsibly, and they need to stay healthy. 

In 2011, the abundance of injuries to forwards left them with little finishing capability, allowing Lightning goalie Dwayne Roloson to put up a forcefield in game 7:

In 2012, a lack of defensive responsibility allowed Flyers forward Claude Giroux to fill the net, an lead the Flyers to victory: 

In their Cup run in 2009, the Pens played well defensively and received goals from secondary forwards, which led them to victory in games like this: 

The Dream Is Over... For Now

I'll begin this the same way I began my last post: Wow.  That's the only word that comes to mind.  When I look back on what has taken place in the Pirates organization since the end of the 2012 season, all I can say is, wow.

Pittsburgh was a baseball town before it was ever a football town.  The Pirates were playing (and winning) World Series before the Steelers existed.  Baseball used to be king around here.  During the twenty year losing streak, all of that was erased.  The Pirates became a city-wide (and nation-wide) joke.  There was one Pirates jersey worn for every thirty Steelers jerseys.  The Pirates were accomplishing nothing, and nobody cared.  That's what makes the last year so incredible for this team.  They made Pittsburgh into a baseball town once again. The fact that they were able to do that, despite being the laughingstock of Western PA for two decades, means something truly amazing must have taken place.  Let's take a look at this amazing season.

It started last winter.  The Pirates were coming off another late season collapse.  Any baseball passion that had been rekindled around here had been crushed.  Many called for the team's front office, led by GM Neal Huntington, to be fired.  Owner Bob Nutting presented an ultimatum: either the Pirates would win in 2013, or people would get fired.  Many thought the current management team was hopelessly incompetent, and were essentially hoping we would lose just so they would be fired.  Huntington had other ideas.  He would prove them all wrong.

The Pirates had what must have been (correct me if I'm wrong) the best offseason in team history.  Huntington scraped together what seemed to be spare parts from around baseball, who all turned out to be stars.  Russell Martin was a defensive prowess behind the plate, Mark Melancon was lights out out of the bullpen, Jeanmar Gomez turned out to be a stellar long-reliever, and of course Francisco Liriano rose up to be the team's ace on the mound.  We didn't know it at the time, but Huntington set the Pirates up for success long before Opening Day.

The regular season was a six month dream for fans who haven't seen winning baseball in their lives (like me).  We got off to a fast start, posting twenty wins in April.  One memory I have from PNC Park in the very early stages of the season was a comeback win vs. the Cincinnati Reds, in which we were down 5-0.  This set the stage for the rest of the season, in a way.  The Pirates made comeback wins their trademark.  Any deficit of four runs or less in a ballgame was not worrying from a fan's point of view.

The Pirates' success this year came from their pitching, as it has for each of the past three years.  Francisco Liriano was a revelation.  He was dominant from the moment he made his debut at the beginning of May, all the way up until his last playoff start five days ago.  He was especially prolific at PNC Park, posting a 1.81 ERA there.  He quickly became the team's stopper, putting an end to any losing streaks, or getting a much needed win against a division rival.  AJ Burnett came back as less of a dominant ace, and more of a scrappy, get-it-done-somehow type of pitcher.  That style suits him well, in my opinion.  Charlie Morton returned from his Tommy John recovery about midway through the season, and was very impressive.  Jeff Locke faded down the stretch, but I still appreciate his impressive stuff from the first half of the season.  Gerrit Cole exceeded all expectations that came with his billing as our top prospect.  He came up in mid June, and pitched six shutout innings.  He consistently has a fastball that sits at 98 MPH, and his curveball has improved by leaps and bounds.  Down the stretch in August, September, and October, he was especially impressive and crucial to the team's success.

This season was full of pitching gems, walkoff wins, incredible comebacks, packed PNC Parks, Greg Brown outbursts, and so many memories.  I'm not mad that we didn't win the World Series.  Yes, I wish we beat the Cardinals.  We were bested.  We went down honorably.  I'm proud of this team.

Besides, there's only optimism for the Pirates' future.  With almost all of the core players on contract, this team will only get better.  Of course, it wouldn't hurt to resign Marlon Byrd, and maybe AJ Burnett.  Besides them, all the key players on the field, in the rotation, and in the bullpen are locked up. Top prospect Jameson Taillon (starting pitcher) seems to be poised to make his MLB debut next season. If you want to know what to expect, he's been rumored to be better than Gerrit Cole.  If that's true... Wow. OF Gregory Polanco had a breakout season with AA Altoona. He will be bursting onto the scene in 2015, maybe even as a September callup in '14.  And if you want to look way ahead, pitchers Tyler Glasnow, Luis Heredia, and outfielder Austin Meadows all appear to have bright futures.

It looks like we're in for many fun summers to come at PNC Park.

Definition Of Home Field Advantage

Wow. That's the only word that comes to mind right now. Wow.  I'm writing this at 9:20 PM, on Sunday, Buctober 6th, 2013.  I just got home from PNC Park, where I witnessed the best crowd I've ever seen (having been to Steelers games at Heinz Field and Penguins playoff games at the old Civic Arena).  From 2 1/2 hours before first pitch, to long after the final out, the people of Pittsburgh were all hands on deck.

The game was scheduled for a 4:37 first pitch. Naturally, I arrived at the stadium at 2:15.  I walked across the Clemente Bridge, tipped the saxophone guy, and grabbed a free "#WeBelieve" sign.  I, along with a few hundred others, waited about 15 minutes for the stadium gates to open. At 2:30, when they finally opened, many fans sprinted inside in order to get the best standing room and bleacher spots.   The Cardinals were still out taking batting practice, and some fans went down to the front row to get some early taunting in.  As we walked in, each fan was given a black rally towel complete with "Raise The Jolly Roger".

The ballpark was packed by 4:10.  There was a mix of booing and "Let's Go Bucs" greeting the Cardinals as they were introduced.  As soon as PA Announcer Tim DeBacco said "Aaand for your Pirates" the crowd leapt to their feet, screaming and waving their towels.  Likable players like Jeff Karstens, Michael McKenry, and AJ Burnett drew loud applause, but the big noise came for the starting lineup. Few got a louder ovation than manager Clint Hurdle, who was greeted by a bowing-down Pirate Parrot.

Pirate ace Francisco Liriano cruised through the first inning, drawing cheers for each strike, and standing ovations for each out.  PNC got rocking early when Marlon Byrd hit a single with men on 2nd  and 3rd, giving the Pirates a 2-0 lead.  Liriano would play with fire throughout the day, and eventually he gave up two runs to tie the game, off of a 2 RBI single by Mr. October, Carlos Beltran.  Those runs were controversial, however, because shortly before Beltran's single, Jon Jay was called safe at third on a play where he should have actually been called out.  Liriano, along with the fans, bounced back and got out of the inning.  The fans went bananas as Liriano walked off the field, as they knew it would be his last inning.

The fans chanted the pitcher's name again (KEL-LY KEL-LY), although it didn't seem to rattle Joe Kelly like it rattled Johnny Cueto on Tuesday.  Joe Kelly did his job superbly.  The problem was,  he wasn't very efficient.  The Pirates got his pitch count up, and we won the game getting hits off of their bullpen.

In the bottom of the 7th inning, a sacrifice fly scored McCutchen to give Pittsburgh a 3-2 lead. That didn't last long, as Carlos Beltran led off the 8th with a home run to tie the game.  Once again, the crowd stayed in it through thick and thin.  Trust me, I've been to some tough losses. Take September 20th vs. the Reds. We blew a three run lead in the 9th.  After that, half the crowd left and the rest were dead silent. Tonight was the polar opposite.  After Mark Melancon let up that tying home run, the fans stood up and cheered louder.  And it worked.  Melancon got out of the inning with no further damage done.

What the Pirates did in the bottom of the 8th inning is what made this night unforgettable. That inning along was a rollercoaster of emotions.  Andrew McCutchen led off with a double, only to be thrown out at third on a ground ball off the bat of Justin Morneau.  That was a depressing blow to the rally, but Marlon Byrd came through with a single that moved pinch runner Josh Harrison to third.  Pedro Alvarez came up to bat, so Cards manager Mike Matheny decided to play some chess.  He brought in lefty Kevin Seigrist, because Pedro tends to be worse against left handed pitchers.  Pedro took matters into his own hands.  He threw the statistics out the window, and lined a single to left, scoring Harrison to give the Pirates the lead.  Russell Martin followed that up with a single to up the lead to 5-3.   No exaggeration, I felt the floor beneath my feet shake as the crowd went wild.

When Greg Brown yelled "It's Grilled Cheese Time!" as closer Jason Grilli trotted out for the ninth, the sea of black was pulsating.  My ears may still be ringing in fact.  Grilli didn't let a leadoff single by Matt Adams get to him.  He got the next three outs in short order.  The fireworks shot off, "New Pirates Generation" was blasted over the PA, and the crowd went nuts. It's something I don't think I'll ever forget. We stayed to hear some TBS guy interview Pedro, but we couldn't hear it.  We walked the winding path down the rotunda, as a loud Lets Go Bucs chant was shared by the thousands exiting the ballpark.  The Clemente Bridge was essentially a victory parade. Everyone was in good spirits waiting in line to get their car.  Pittsburgh collectively smiled.

The Pirates Finally Made It

What a night.  What a night for the Pirates, what a night for the fans, what a night for Pittsburgh.  If there had been any doubt surrounding whether Pittsburgh was embracing its baseball team, last night cleared it up.  Sure the Pirates have had plenty of cool moments at PNC Park over the past few years. All of those paled in comparison to what occurred last night on the North Shore.  Michael McKenry had his iconic homer in 2011 (accompanied by an even more iconic call from Greg Brown).  That, however, preceded a monumental collapse which all but erased the shine from that memory.  Drew Sutton had a memorable walkoff homer in 2012, only to suffer the same fate as McKenry's blast.  Nothing compares to winning.  Nothing compares to the scene that unfolded last night.

It started hours before the first pitch.  fans flooded Federal Street and the Clemente Bridge starting around 5:00.  There were long lines at the stadium gates, which opened at 6:00.  Fans quickly filled up the standing room sections, and the entire stadium filled out shortly thereafter.  A record 40,547 showed up.  The blackout was pulled off incredibly well. In addition to that, the Pirates handed each fan a black "Raise The Jolly Roger" rally towel.  The place was ready to explode during the announcement of the starting lineups.  Chants of "Let's Go Bucs" drowned out most of the Cincinnati names, save for Brandon Phillips who drew a Baltimore Ravens level of booing.  All that was left was for Andrew McCutchen's mother to nail the National Anthem, and the game was off and running.

It started appropriately enough, with Francisco Liriano striking out Shin Soo Choo in impressive fashion.  The night continued smoothly for "Frank The Tank", who pitched seven innings giving up just one earned run.  The crowd roared with every strike, and exploded with every out made by the Reds.

When the Pirates came to bat in the second inning, you knew times had changed in Pittsburgh. Pirate killer Johnny Cueto took the mound.  Time after time, he had dominated the Bucs in Pittsburgh. This time was destined to be different.  He gave up a solo shot to Marlon Byrd to start things off in the second.  As I said before the game, "if the Pirates score first, the crowd can essentially take it from there". That they did.  They mercilessly chanted "CUEEE-TTOOO, CUEEE-TTOOO" before every pitch.  It obviously got into the Reds' ace's head, because he literally dropped the ball as he was getting ready to pitch to Russell Martin. Just dropped it. He had to walk about five steps off the mound to retrieve it.  It was an embarrassment; he had just let the 40,000+ on hand affect the game. On the very next pitch, Martin launched a towering home run into the left field bleachers.  The Buccos would chase Cueto after just 3 and 1/3 innings.

The Pirates took a 6-2 lead into the top of the ninth inning. Closer Jason Grilli enters from the bullpen. He promptly struck out the first man he faced, induced a shallow flyout on the second, and the third grounded out to the Pittsburgh Kid, Neil Walker.  The dugout, the stadium, and the city erupted after that last out.  It took a while, but the Pirates finally have a memory worth showing off.  Let's be honest, you were sick of seeing the highlight of that McKenry home run.

Note: Am I the only one who was extremely annoyed by TBS showing the clip of Sid Bream's slide in '92 before the 9th inning? Horrible timing.

Why The Pirates Are So Good This Year

The Blog is officially back from Summer break.  We left off at the beginning of June. The Steelers were distant memories, the Penguins were still in shock from their playoff loss to Boston, and the Pirates were holding their own in the NL Central.

Since then, the Pirates have gone from "holding their own" to being one of the best teams in baseball. As I write this, at 6:30 on August 22nd, they sit in 1st place in the NL Central, one game ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals and two games ahead of the Cincinnati Reds.  The Buccos sport a record of 74-52. They need just eight more wins to ensure their first winning season since 1992.

The past twenty seasons have been filled with disappointment.  At the end of each year, naturally, the fans look for places to assign blame. At the end of each of the past four seasons, fans and media have consistently ripped on Neal Huntington, the Pirates' general manager.  People complained that he didn't do enough at the trade deadline to set the team up for success, and they ridiculed his offseason moves.  There's no telling how this season will end for the Bucs, but one thing is for sure: Neal Huntington has done all that he could.  Here's a look at how he set these 2013 Pirates up for success.

Lets start with his offseason moves.  There were two gaping holes in the roster: catcher and starting pitcher.  First, they went out and signed free agent pitcher Francisco Liriano.  Liriano was once a highly successful pitcher, although he hadn't performed well over the past couple years.  Huntington and the Pirates' staff saw potential in him, and they signed him.  This story took a weird turn, when, on Christmas Day, Liriano broke his (non-pitching) arm while playing with his kids.  They reworked the contract, and eventually settled on a new one.  The injury ended up costing Liriano the first month of the season.  He made his Pittsburgh debut on the mound in early May, and impressed early on.  Since then, he has established himself as the staff ace, and forced himself into National League Cy Young discussions, with his 14-5 record and 2.53 ERA.

Another major offseason acquisition was catcher Russell Martin.  The catcher position was one of the biggest weak spots for the Pirates in 2012, with Rod Barajas as their No. 1 catcher.  He struggled mightily offensively and defensively, recording outs on only 6% of attempted steals against him.  Martin was coming off of an off year with the New York Yankees, and expectations weren't very high.  Martin was one of the biggest surprises this year for the Bucs, posting a .248 batting average, .350 on-base percentage, and 11 home runs.  He has been no stranger to clutch hitting, racking up four walkoff hits so far this season.  Defensively, he has been one of the best catchers in the NL, throwing out 27 batters so far, causing base runners to think twice before stealing.

There was one big trade in the offseason.  When the trade was announced, many were unenthusiastic.  It looked like we would break even, if we were lucky.  Over the past 5 months, the trade proved to be one of the most important moves to ensure success in 2013. The Pirates traded their elite closer, Joel Hanrahan, and infielder Brock Holt to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for reliever Mark Melancon, and prospects Ivan de Jesus, Jerry Sands, and Stolmy Pimentel.  First of all, trading Hanrahan meant dropping his salary, which allowed the team to re-sign Jason Grilli, who would become the closer in place of Hanrahan. Grilli became the agreed-upon best closer in the NL, posting 30 saves through the end of July.  Mark Melancon moved into the setup role (pitching the 8th inning, to set up for Grilli), and quickly became one of the best relievers in all of baseball, posting a .93 ERA over 58 appearances.  Stolmy Pimentel and Jerry Sands have been progressing with AAA Indianapolis.  This trade was so instrumental to the Pirates' success this season.

You can credit the farm system, for bringing up great prospects like Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Pedro Alvarez, Gerrit Cole, and others.  You can credit manager Clint Hurdle for working his confidence magic yet again with this team.  But GM Neal Huntington deserves one heap of credit.  After last season's failure, he went out and made several moves to boost this team to an elite level.  Now buckle up, and lets watch this team finally fight for a playoff spot.

Pirates Batting Order

There are 25 days until Opening Day for the Pirates.  Over two weeks into Spring Training, we already have a good idea of what the team should look like.  Here's what I (not necessarily Clint Hurdle) think the batting order should be.

1.  Jose Tabata, RF
2. Starling Marte, LF
3. Andrew McCutchen, CF
4. Garrett Jones, 1B
5.  Pedro Alvarez, 3B
6. Neil Walker, 2B
7. Russell Martin, C
8. Clint Barmes, SS
9. A.J. Burnett, P

1. Tabata has the skills to be a good Major-League player.  As he showed last year, he lacked some of the motivation and effort.  If he gets it together, he should make the lineup.  He is in the leadoff spot over Marte because Marte is known to be more of a free-swinging type of player, which is not ideal for leadoff.
2.  Marte is speedy, and has some power, but isn't a true home run guy.  Perfect for the 2-hole.
3.  No brainer.  McCutchen played every game last year in the 3-spot, putting up a .327 average.  He got 195 hits, including 29 doubles and 31 home runs.  Don't change a thing.
4.  I have Jones batting cleanup not because he is a better power hitter than Alvarez, but because Alvarez has NEVER played well in the 4-spot.  Most of his notorious slumps can be traced back to being put there.
5.  Being in the 5-spot gives Alvarez a chance to clear the bases with his mighty power, but without some of the pressure of the cleanup spot.
6.  Not much debate here.  Walker is a solid hitter, but without very much power.  Easily better than the two below him.
7.  Martin is coming off of a poor season with the Yankees, but, hey, so was A.J. Burnett last year.  The only reason I didn't put him in the 2-hole is because the bottom of the lineup needs more stability.
8.  Not much thought here.  The worst hitter in this group of eight, although he showed signs of life at the end of last year.

Pens 4, Islanders 2

The Penguins got some revenge tuesday night in Long Island.  They avenged last weeks ugly 4-1 loss to the Islanders on home ice.

Marc-Andre Fleury was the Penguins MVP tonight.  by far.  He was solid all night, and made at least two jaw dropping saves; One of them a signature MAF cartwheel getting the glove on the puck, and the other a great save with the left pad coming across the crease.

The Penguins were undisciplined tonight, no excuses.  They gave the Isles 7 power play chances.  I did however have a problem with the officiating .  See, the way NHL refs call penalties is very strange.  They sometimes purposely ignore penalties, either because that team has gotten called a lot already in that game, or they simply aren't feeling it.  Also, NHL refs frequently call penalties that really shouldn't be called.  This is the part I really hate.  They do this to "even-up" on other penalties in the game.  If one team gets a 5-on-3 power play chance, look for the other team to get some cheap calls going their way.  The problem in this game was the Penguins had 5 penalties called on them in the second period.  None of them had more than 2:00 between them.  My point is, if the refs are going to continue to use their arbitrary penalty calling style, they at least have to be unbiased and even.

Fortunately, the Penguins' penalty kill came up HUGE.  Brooks Orpik, Paul Martin, and Brandon Sutter were all standouts in their defensive play.  Only once or twice did the Isles get a high quality chance on the power play (of which they had 7).  Maybe they should stop putting Sidney Crosby out there for the face-off.  Joe Vitale can do the same thing at the same success rate.