What Stands In The Way Of A Fourth Stanley Cup For The Penguins?

   As many supporters of the team have grown accustomed to over the past four years, the Penguins are once again near the top of the list of teams that are believed to be legitimate contenders for the Stanley Cup.  After all, they have possibly the top two players in the world, in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, on their roster.  Those two, complemented by dynamic scorers Chris Kunitz and James Neal, make for a dangerous offense. If the “defense wins championships” theory is a concern, the Pens have former Norris Trophy (for the NHL’s best defenseman) finalist Kris Letang, along with shutdown defensemen Paul Martin and Rob Scuderi.  Goaltender Marc Andre Fleury currently leads the NHL in wins, with twenty-nine, and ranks in the top ten in average goals-against (2.26). 

All of this combines to form one massive expectation: the Penguins will be playing games into early June.  That has been the expectation every year since 2008. While they reached the finals and lost to Detroit in ’08, and then won the Cup in 2009, the expectation hasn’t been met lately.  The Pens have lost in the first or second round in three of the past four years, and haven’t recorded a win past round two since that Cup run in ’09.  The Penguins should be building a dynasty with multiple Cups, like Chicago has been doing.  Instead, the team has been haunted by the likes of Jaroslav Halak, Claude Giroux, Marty St. Louis, and, most recently, Tuukka Rask.  While all signs point to the Pens having a great chance to erase that this spring by bringing home the big prize, there are a few reasons to be wary of another disappointment.

The first is a lack of secondary scoring.  While Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, James Neal, and Chris Kunitz have been filling the net, the team has received very little production from the rest of the offense.  Players like Brandon Sutter, Chuck Kobasew, and Craig Adams have been all but nonexistent on the score sheet. While it is expected that the top six forwards will carry the majority of the offensive load, a Stanley Cup-winning team needs the occasional big goal contribution from the bottom six, too.  Part of this will be resolved over time.  Chris Conner, Joe Vitale, and Beau Bennett all should return from injury well before the time the playoffs roll around.  Another possibility is making a trade, perhaps shipping one of the team’s many defensive prospects away in return for a winger.  If nothing is done to address this problem, this would be a serious concern as we head towards April. 

Another worry is defense.  The Penguins have a wealth of talent on defense. As stated above, they have a solid top three of Kris Letang, Paul Martin, and Rob Scuderi.  They are well complemented by the heavy hitting Brooks Orpik, and the dynamic pairing of Matt Niskanen and rookie Olli Maatta.  Sometimes, however, the way the defense operates is more important than the talent itself.  Kris Letang, for instance, has the talent to be one of the best two-way defensemen the league has ever seen.  However, instead of being smart with the puck, he is often creating turnovers or making poor choices. Another problem is a lack of defensive responsibility, or “paying attention to the little things”.  The Cup-winning Penguins of ’09 prided themselves on their attention to detail. Their miniscule number of mistakes meant they allowed far fewer goals, which meant they won more games in spite of not having the explosive offense that the 2014 team has.  If the defense becomes more responsible—which we have seen, at some points this season, that they can do—then this concern isn’t really a factor.

Another potential problem is injury.  It is a fact of life that has plagued the Penguins seemingly forever.  Old people will remember how Mario Lemieux’s career was hindered by his back problems.  In recent memory, Sidney Crosby was sidelined for nine months with a concussion, and Evgeni Malkin had to have reconstructive knee surgery.  This season alone, the Penguins were without Evgeni Malkin, James Neal, Kris Letang, Paul Martin, Rob Scuderi, Brooks Orpik, and Deryk Engelland all at the same time!  While they found ways to operate and get by for the time being, such a rash of injuries would certainly spell the team’s demise in the playoffs.  A rational proposition would be that the Penguins need Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, James Neal, Chris Kunitz, Kris Letang, Paul Martin, Rob Scuderi, Brooks Orpik, and Marc Andre Fleury to stay healthy 100% of the playoffs in order to reach their goal.  Not much can be done to prevent injuries from happening.  However, we’ve seen it ruin a team’s chances before. For instance, the 2011 Penguins entered the playoffs without the services of Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin, and they were eliminated in the first round.

The Penguins, as they stand, are one of the top five contenders in the NHL.  Obviously, being top five doesn’t necessarily get you the Cup. The Pens are interested, and only interested, in being number one. To do that, their bottom-six forwards need to start chipping in some goals (or GM Ray Shero needs to trade for a better one(s)), the defensemen need to play soundly and responsibly, and they need to stay healthy. 

In 2011, the abundance of injuries to forwards left them with little finishing capability, allowing Lightning goalie Dwayne Roloson to put up a forcefield in game 7:

In 2012, a lack of defensive responsibility allowed Flyers forward Claude Giroux to fill the net, an lead the Flyers to victory: 

In their Cup run in 2009, the Pens played well defensively and received goals from secondary forwards, which led them to victory in games like this: 

One Down, Three To Go

The Penguins will advance to the second round of the playoffs.  The will advance past the first round for the first time since 2010, which is a ridiculous slump when you consider the talent this team has had.  But, that's all behind us.  The Penguins took care of business against the Islanders, who were trying to force a game 7 on Sunday in Pittsburgh.  Nobody wanted that.  Not even the lucky fans who bought tickets for it.  Nobody wants to see a game 7.  It's too unpredictable.  If there were a game 7 today, the fear would be real.  But that's behind us.  Let's forget about that, and celebrate the Pens' 4-3 overtime win, and 4-2 series win.

Now, let's take a look forward at the next challenge.  The Pens will face the Ottawa Senators.

I don't think the next series will be as frustrating as this one was.  I don't think we will come out of games wondering "how in the world did we play that poorly?".  I think we will see a better team performance by the Pens.

I think the pressure got the them in the first round.  After a series of trades by GM Ray Shero, the Penguins were the mega-favorite to win the Stanley Cup.  That, combined with the fact that they hadn't won a playoff series since 2010, combined for some serious pressure.  That's why the Islanders were able to give the Pens a run for their money.

Another thing is that the Islanders, over the past few years, have had a knack for giving the Pens trouble.  Every so often, the Isles would deal the Pens a disturbing loss on home ice, or something of that nature.  Even when the Islanders were at the bottom of the Eastern Conference, they would find ways to beat the Penguins.  That's why I'm not surprised that this series went six games.  I had a feeling in the back of my mind that they would give us trouble.

The Senators, I think, won't be as worrying.  Over the past several years, the Penguins have gotten them figured out.  Since 2008, we've met them in the Playoffs twice.  In the first one, the Pens coasted to a sweep.  Then, in 2010, the Pens won in 6.  Since then, the Pens have owned them in the regular season.

I think that the fact that the Pens have vanquished all those pressures of the first round, and the fact that we could write a book on how to beat the Senators combine to make an easier ride for round two.  It won't be an easy series, by any means.  But you won't be seeing any of the total nonsense we saw against the Isles.  There'll be fewer sloppy plays.  Tighter defense.  And the Pens getting back to their style of dumping the puck into the offensive zone, skating in, forechecking the opponent into the ground.  If they can do that well, and play some defense, they will take the series.

Clean It Up, Pens

The first three games of the Stanley Cup Playoffs are in the books.  On paper, the Penguins appear to be in good shape.  You see a 5-0 blowout win in game one, a tight 4-3 loss in game two, and a 5-4 overtime win in the third game.  On paper, it appears that we not only took a series lead, but demoralized the Islanders.  They fought back so hard towards the end of the game to force overtime.  After all that, Crosby set up Kunitz for the winner in OT, making it look easy.  All in front of a wild crowd at the ancient Nassau Coliseum, a building that hadn't seen a playoff game in six years.

Sure, the Penguins are in a good position going forward in the series.  But if they hope to get close to a Stanley Cup, or even to get out of this series, things need to change.  The Pens are stocked with talent, we all know that.  The trouble is putting it to good use.  The Penguins need to play smart.  In Sunday's 5-4 win, there were two players who played smart:  Sidney Crosby and Douglas Murray.  Everybody else astounded with their dumb decisions.  Matt Niskanen had two turnovers, both of them costing the Pens a goal. Letang turned the puck over uncharacteristically.  Countless others did the same.  The bottom line is that none of the players need to play as well as Crosby, but they all need to play as smart is him.

They need to stop making blind passes.  They need to stop forcing passes to star players.  They need to stop slinging the puck 80 feet up ice, hoping it will connect with someone (this almost always ends up being a turnover).  They need to stop trying to outskill the Islanders' defense.  Instead of trying to walk right into the offensive zone, try dumping it in and using that fore-checking thing that worked so well in game one.

The Pens had a 15 game win streak this season.  They didn't accomplish that by speeding up the ice, beating the entire team and scoring 10 goals per game.  The played a tough, defensively sound game.  They hit their opponents hard, and lock it down in front of Marc Andre Fleury.  They waited for the other team to give them opportunities to score.  What they are doing now is essentially trying to force goals, and in the process, giving the Islanders opportunities to score.

This needs to stop.

Equipped for Success

Last year, the Penguins were a favorite to win the Cup for much of the year, especially after Sidney Crosby made his second return in March.  As the the trade deadline approached and passed, the Pens' GM Ray Shero did something out of character: nothing.  He made no moves to strengthen the team in any way.  This proved to be a mistake, as Philadelphia would eliminate the Penguins from the playoffs in the first round, embarrassing them defensively.

This year was obviously different.  Shero did a lot to strengthen the team.  In fact, he did far more than any other NHL GM.  Here's a look at the Pens' 5 acquisitions (In chronological order), and how they can help them to a Stanley Cup win.

1. Tomas Vokoun One of the glaring problems in the Pens' playoff loss to Philadelphia was the goaltending.  Marc-Andre Fleury played very poorly (an understatement).  This was in part because of fatigue.  Backup goalie Brent Johnson played so poorly in 2011-12 that he couldn't be trusted to win a game, forcing Fleury to play over 20 games in a row.  He had nothing left by the time the playoffs came around.  So, Shero went out and got a reliable backup who could relieve some of the load.  Enter Vokoun.  While he won't see the ice during the Stanley Cup Playoffs, he will give Fleury the rest he needs to play well.

2.  Brenden Morrow Before this season started, in my New Year's Resolutions blog, I pointed out that the Penguins needed to regain their toughness.  The toughness they had in their 2009 Cup win, but totally lacked in 2011-2012.  The bottom line:  The Playoffs are not a scoring-fest, they are a defensive, hard-hitting battle.  The Pens got some of the toughness back with the veteran winger Morrow.  He will play on the third line instead of Tyler Kennedy, making that line more of a traditional third line (hard-hitting, good defensively, hard to play against in general).

3.  Douglas Murray In 2009, as the Penguins were gearing up to eventually win the Stanley Cup, Shero acquired defenseman Hal Gill.  Gill was a great shutdown defenseman, something infinitely valuable in the Playoffs.  Gill left for Montreal after that year.  The Penguins have lacked that solid, veteran presence ever since, especially after Sergei Gonchar left town.  The Pens regained some of that when they got Doug Murray.  He is probably the most underrated hitters in the league.  He adds to the Penguins' toughness and defense, which (not to sound like a broken record) is incredibly important to win a Stanley Cup.

4. Jarome Iginla  This is the one we're all excited about.  Last Wednesday, we all went to bed thinking Iginla went to the Bruins.  To the delight of Pens fans everywhere, Ray Shero swooped in at the last minute and grabbed him.  This is an obviously great addition to this team.  Iginla has a scoring touch which is always a plus, and he can also hit and even fight.  Another player in the "tough to play against" list.

5.  Jussi Jokinen Jokinen is a 3rd-line-at-best center.  He was acquired mainly because Crosby is injured for the time being, and we need depth at center.  Tyler Kennedy wasn't exactly cutting it as a No. 1 center, so Shero pulled the trigger (Jokinen came with a very, very low price tag).  Once Crosby returns, he will be slotted into the fourth line, which desperately needs a spark.  He is a whiz at faceoffs, which the Penguins have lacked this year, even during the 15 game win streak.